MLB DFS: Top Daily Fantasy Expert Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel (7/14/24) (2024)

Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another DFS slate that is full of possibilities. It's a fantastic afternoon for baseball and, unfortunately, our last day of games until Friday as the All-Star break commences. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!

We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix offers us nothing in terms of reliable aces, so we'll have to consider riskier options, which will undoubtedly lead to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative on today's nine-game main slate.

This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/14/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.

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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Nick Lodolo vs. Miami Marlins ($9.8K DK, $9.9K FD)

This slate lacks true aces, so Nick Lodolo looks to be the preferred SP1 option. He had a mediocre outing last time out, but it was his first game back from an injured list stint, and he should assume a full workload today. Overall, Lodolo is enjoying a strong campaign, featuring a 3.45 xERA and a 3.79 xFIP over 13 starts. While he does an excellent job keeping opposing offenses quiet, Lodolo's primary fantasy value is in his strikeout numbers. He boasts a fantastic 25% strikeout rate in 2024, a little down from his 28.3% strikeout rate in 2023, and a 27.9% career mark.

Lodolo also draws an exceptionally favorable matchup with the Miami Marlins today. Their offense is generating fewer than 3.5 runs per game on the season. Miami's struggles include a horrible 68 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the worst mark in all of baseball, alongside a .098 ISO and a .264 wOBA.

Ben Lively vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($8.2K DK, $8.6K FD)

If you're seeking a more affordable pitching option, Ben Lively is the most reliable arm available in the midrange today. Over 15 outings this season, he sports a respectable 3.50 xERA, a mark well ahead of his uninspiring career averages. There is nothing exceptional about Lively's pitching profile, but his success is derived from the simple ability to keep runners off the base paths. Opposing hitters have generated just a .233 xBA and a 6.9% walk rate, amounting to a strong .296 xwOBA. That ability to limit traffic, paired with a middling 21.3% strikeout rate, makes Lively a worthwhile alternative on this thin pitching slate.

The Tampa Bay Rays bring one of baseball's most disappointing offenses into play today. They have plated fewer than four runs per game on the season, down from an excellent 5.3 runs per game mark in 2023. Their lineup hasn't changed substantially from last year, but performance levels are down across the board. The Rays' struggles include a weak 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a 23.8% strikeout rate and a .128 ISO.

Also Consider: Ronel Blanco, Mitch Keller, Ryan Pepiot, Trevor Rogers

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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024

DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Bryce Harper - 1B, PHI vs. Joey Estes ($5.8K DK, $3.9K FD)

Bryce Harper is one of the more obvious players to gravitate to on this slate. On the season, he is slashing .303/.404/.583 with 21 home runs and a 166 wRC+. That success consists of some elite batted-ball metrics, such as a .523 xSLG, 12.1% barrel rate, 47.1% hard-hit rate, and a 91.1 MPH average exit velocity.

Bryce Harper has now homered against every Major League team 👀 pic.twitter.com/WNVhm0DJNS

— MLB (@MLB) July 13, 2024

Conversely, Joey Estes is a preferred pitcher to attack on this slate. Over 11 starts, he carries a weak 4.65 xERA and a 4.94 xFIP. Estes has been lit up by opposing hitters to the tune of a .477 xSLG, 9% barrel rate, and a 43.8% hard-hit rate. Left-handed hitters have been particularly brutal for Estes, slugging .551 against him.

Oneil Cruz - SS, PIT vs. Chad Kuhl ($5K DK, $3.3K FD)

Oneil Cruz hasn't quite experienced the breakout season that many predicted heading into the 2024 campaign, but he is still one of the more dangerous hitters in the league. He sports a respectable .734 OPS for the season, with 14 home runs and seven stolen bases. An ugly 32.1% strikeout rate hampers Cruz, though the results are spectacular when he does put the ball in play. His incredible batted-ball metrics include a .500 xSLG, 18.4% barrel rate, 95.2 MPH average exit velocity, and a 54.2% hard-hit rate.

If you are surprised that Chad Kuhl is still in the major leagues in 2024, then you are not alone. He has been limited to just 17 1/3 innings pitched this season but posted an 8.79 xERA across 16 appearances in 2023, up from a 5.28 xERA over 27 starts in 2022. Kuhl has persistent issues with left-handed hitters, surrendering a career .495 slugging to lefties. Additionally, he owns a below-average 19.8% strikeout rate for his career, making Kuhl an ideal matchup for Oneil Cruz.

Juan Yepez - 1B, WSH vs. Colin Rea ($2.7K DK, $2.6K FD)

In terms of value, there may be no better option than Juan Yepez. The 26-year-old has made quite an impression with his new team, hitting safely in nine consecutive games since debuting with the Washington Nationals last week, amounting to a .353/.436/.529 slash line with a 161 wRC+. Though Yepez has yet to hit a home run, he has demonstrated plenty of power-hitting upside throughout his time in the minor leagues.

There is an unusually dramatic disconnect between Colin Rea's 3.81 ERA and his 5.20 xERA. Though the surface numbers tell us that 2024 has been a successful campaign for Rea, he is a prime regression candidate. His struggles include surrendering a .472 xSLG, 90.5 MPH average exit velocity, .286 xBA, and a 41.1% hard-hit rate.

DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Kyle Schwarber - OF, PHI vs. Joey Estes ($5.5K DK, $3.8K FD)

Kyle Schwarber is another left-handed hitter in the Philadelphia Phillies batting order who will match up beautifully against Joey Estes today. He sports a .840 OPS for the season with 19 home runs and a 138 wRC+. That includes predictably impressive batted-ball metrics, such as a .474 xSLG, 11.7% barrel rate, 54.9% hard-hit rate, and a 93.5 MPH average exit velocity.

Brenton Doyle - OF, COL vs. Jose Quintana ($4.5K DK, $3.3K FD)

For the season, Brenton Doyle boasts an impressive .806 OPS with 14 home runs and 20 stolen. He is also the hottest hitter in all of baseball right now. Since the beginning of July, the 26-year-old is batting .439 with an unbelievable 1.073 slugging percentage, including seven home runs and a 338 wRC+.

Brenton Doyle over his last 11 games:

.459 AVG
7 HR
14 RBI
9 Runs
1 SBpic.twitter.com/6fCFvdfKwc

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) July 13, 2024

Jose Quintana is another prime regression candidate as we move into the season's second half. His 3.91 ERA looks decent enough on the surface, but a 5.14 xERA undermines the results. In reality, Quintana has been regularly handled by opposing hitters, surrendering a .449 xSLG, .284 xBA, and a 44.1% hard-hit rate.

Lawrence Butler - OF, OAK vs. Michael Mercado ($2.5K DK, $2.7K FD)

If we ignore his overall numbers for the season, Lawrence Butler's recent hot streak makes him an excellent punt play value. He is slugging .657 since the beginning of July with four home runs and a 201 wRC+. Butler was bumped up to the leadoff spot in the Oakland Athletics lineup on Saturday, and if that role is maintained, he will look like an even more enticing play.

Michael Mercado's MLB career is only 7 2/3 innings deep so far, so there is not much to take away from his ugly 7.02 ERA. Still, Mercado posted a 5.35 xFIP over 14 appearances in Triple-A this season and lacks the prospect pedigree to make us believe he is a pitcher to avoid attacking.

DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks

1. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Joey Estes

• Favorite Plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm

2. Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chad Kuhl

• Favorite Plays: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski

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